全國電力供需總體偏緊 非化石能源發電裝機有望首次超過煤電

近日，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)力企業聯合(he)會發布《2021年三季度全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)力供需(xu)形(xing)勢分析預測報(bao)(bao)(bao)告》（以下簡(jian)稱《報(bao)(bao)(bao)告》），《報(bao)(bao)(bao)告》指出，前三季度，電(dian)力消費累計增速延續兩位數增長，電(dian)力裝機結構延續綠色低碳發展(zhan)態勢。受電(dian)煤供應緊(jin)(jin)張等(deng)多(duo)重因(yin)素影響，三季度電(dian)力供需(xu)形(xing)勢總體偏(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，全(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)多(duo)地(di)出現(xian)有序用電(dian)。

《報告》指出，綜合(he)考慮(lv)國內外(wai)經(jing)濟形勢、上年(nian)(nian)基數前(qian)后(hou)變化、電能替代等因素(su)，并(bing)結合(he)當前(qian)外(wai)部環境等方面的不確定性，預計(ji)2021年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)全社會(hui)用(yong)電量增長(chang)10%-11%，其中，四季度全社會(hui)用(yong)電量同(tong)比增長(chang)5%左右(you)。

用電量反映出制造業延續升級態勢

《報告》顯(xian)示，前三季度，全國(guo)全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)6.17萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比增長12.9%，上年同期低基數以及今年以來國(guo)民(min)經濟保持恢復態勢是用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)快速增長的主要原因；兩年平均增長7.4%，高(gao)于2019年同期增速3.0個百分點。

《報告》顯示，第二(er)產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)4.10萬億千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)12.3%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)長(chang)6.9%。一、二(er)、三季(ji)度，第二(er)產業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比分別增(zeng)長(chang)24.1%、10.6%和5.1%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別為(wei)7.4%、7.3%和6.1%，四大(da)(da)高(gao)(gao)載能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)增(zeng)速(su)(su)回(hui)落(luo)是三季(ji)度第二(er)產業(ye)增(zeng)速(su)(su)回(hui)落(luo)的重要原因。前(qian)三季(ji)度，制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)13.3%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)長(chang)7.5%；其中，高(gao)(gao)技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)、其他制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)行(xing)業(ye)、消費品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)、四大(da)(da)高(gao)(gao)載能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別為(wei)19.7%、17.2%、16.2%、9.5%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別為(wei)10.1%、9.1%、6.3%、6.4%。高(gao)(gao)技(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)明顯高(gao)(gao)于同(tong)(tong)期制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)水平(ping)，反映出當(dang)前(qian)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)延續升級態勢。國家堅決遏(e)制(zhi)(zhi)“兩(liang)高(gao)(gao)”項目盲目發展(zhan)，四大(da)(da)高(gao)(gao)載能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)逐季(ji)回(hui)落(luo)，各(ge)季(ji)度兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別為(wei)7.1%、6.7%和5.6%。

新能源發電裝機比重提高

《報告(gao)》顯(xian)示，截至9月底，全國(guo)全口徑發電(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)22.9億(yi)千瓦，同比(bi)增長(chang)9.4%。前三(san)季度，全國(guo)規模以上工業企(qi)業發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)為6.07萬億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)增長(chang)10.7%；全國(guo)發電(dian)(dian)設備平均利用(yong)小時2880小時，同比(bi)提高113小時。

電力(li)投資同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)0.8%。前三季度(du)，全國(guo)重點調查企業合計完(wan)成電力(li)投資6028億元，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)0.8%，兩(liang)年平(ping)均增長(chang)12.7%。

全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑并網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增長(chang)(chang)32.8%和(he)24.6%。前三季度，全(quan)國新增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)9240萬千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增加2016萬千(qian)瓦。截至9月底，全(quan)國全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)12.8億千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)3.9%；其中，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)11.0億千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)2.4%，占(zhan)總裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)為47.9%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)降低(di)3.3個百(bai)分點。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)3.8億千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)5.0%。核電(dian)(dian)(dian)5326萬千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)6.8%。風電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.0億千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)32.8%。太陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機2.8億千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)24.6%。全(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)10.5億千(qian)瓦，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)17.8%，占(zhan)總裝機容(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)為45.7%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高3.3個百(bai)分點。

全(quan)(quan)口徑并網風電(dian)和(he)(he)太陽能發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)別增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)41.6%和(he)(he)24.5%。前(qian)三(san)季度(du)，受降水偏(pian)少等(deng)因素影(ying)響(xiang)，全(quan)(quan)國規模(mo)以上工業(ye)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)水電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)9030億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降0.9%；受電(dian)力消費(fei)快速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)、水電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)影(ying)響(xiang)，規模(mo)以上工業(ye)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)火電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)4.33萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.9%；核電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)3031億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.3%。全(quan)(quan)口徑風電(dian)和(he)(he)并網太陽能發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)分(fen)別為4715、2491億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)別增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)41.6%和(he)(he)24.5%。全(quan)(quan)口徑非(fei)化石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.17萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.2%；占全(quan)(quan)口徑發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)為34.7%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高0.1個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。全(quan)(quan)口徑煤電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)3.74萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.3%；占全(quan)(quan)口徑發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)為59.8%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降低0.2個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。

《報告》顯示，核電(dian)、火電(dian)和風電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)設(she)備利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時同(tong)比(bi)分別(bie)提(ti)高321、280、91小(xiao)時。前三季度，全(quan)(quan)國發(fa)電(dian)設(she)備平(ping)均利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時2880小(xiao)時，同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)高113小(xiao)時。市場(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)量同(tong)比(bi)增長20.1%。前三季度，全(quan)(quan)國各電(dian)力交(jiao)易中心累計(ji)組(zu)織(zhi)完成市場(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)量27091.8億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比(bi)增長20.1%。

《報(bao)告》顯示，三(san)(san)季(ji)度，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力供需總體偏緊，尤其是9月(yue)受電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供應(ying)緊張、電(dian)(dian)力消費需求較(jiao)快增(zeng)長以及部分地區加(jia)強(qiang)“能耗雙控”等(deng)多(duo)重因素疊加(jia)影響(xiang)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)超過20個省份(fen)采(cai)取了有序(xu)用電(dian)(dian)措施。電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供應(ying)持續(xu)緊張，煤(mei)炭價(jia)格持續(xu)急(ji)劇上漲，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業大(da)面積虧(kui)損。前三(san)(san)季(ji)度，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)原煤(mei)產量同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長3.7%，比(bi)上半年增(zeng)速(su)回落2.7個百(bai)分點；前三(san)(san)季(ji)度，累計(ji)進(jin)口(kou)煤(mei)炭同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降3.6%，國(guo)家(jia)支持加(jia)大(da)進(jin)口(kou)煤(mei)炭采(cai)購(gou)，煤(mei)炭進(jin)口(kou)累計(ji)降幅逐步收窄。電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價(jia)格持續(xu)攀升(sheng)，屢創(chuang)歷史新高，電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)采(cai)購(gou)及保供工作難度加(jia)大(da)。煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業燃料成本大(da)幅攀升(sheng)，煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業虧(kui)損面明顯擴(kuo)大(da)，8月(yue)以來大(da)型發電(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)板塊整(zheng)體虧(kui)損，部分集團(tuan)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)虧(kui)損面達到100%。

迎峰度冬期間全國電力供需總體偏緊

國家堅(jian)持(chi)穩(wen)中求進(jin)工作總基調，統籌(chou)做好今明兩(liang)年宏觀政策銜接(jie)，保持(chi)經濟運行在合理區間，為全社會用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)提供了最主要支撐。《報告》預(yu)計2021年全年全社會用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)10%-11%，其(qi)中，四(si)季度全社會用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)同比增長(chang)5%左右。

《報(bao)告》預(yu)計(ji)，全年(nian)全國基(ji)建新(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)1.8億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)(you)(you)，其中非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)投產(chan)1.4億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)(you)(you)。預(yu)計(ji)年(nian)底(di)全國發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)23.7億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長7.7%左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)(you)(you)；其中，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)11.1億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.9億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、并(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.3億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、并(bing)網(wang)太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.1億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)5441萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、生物質發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)3600萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)(you)(you)。非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)合計(ji)達到11.2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)(you)(you)，占總裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)上升至47.3%，比(bi)2020年(nian)底(di)提高2.5個百分點左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)(you)(you)，非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)規(gui)模及比(bi)重(zhong)預(yu)計(ji)將首(shou)次超(chao)過煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

《報告》分析，從需(xu)求(qiu)端看，宏觀(guan)經濟繼續保持在(zai)合理區(qu)間(jian)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力消費(fei)需(xu)求(qiu)將保持中速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)水(shui)平。全(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量中速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)并疊加(jia)冷空氣等因素(su)，進一(yi)步放大用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，其(qi)中采暖負(fu)荷增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)更為明顯，部(bu)分城市居民用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷占比達到50%左右。從供(gong)(gong)給端看，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)方(fang)(fang)面，重點水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站蓄能值同比減(jian)少(shao)，冬季降水(shui)總體呈(cheng)偏少(shao)特(te)征(zheng)。新能源(yuan)方(fang)(fang)面，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)比重持續上(shang)升，隨機(ji)(ji)(ji)性(xing)、間(jian)歇性(xing)和波(bo)動性(xing)大幅增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia),電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)運行中的調峰(feng)資源(yuan)不足(zu)情況進一(yi)步加(jia)劇。火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)方(fang)(fang)面，國家(jia)全(quan)力推動煤(mei)炭(tan)增(zeng)(zeng)產增(zeng)(zeng)供(gong)(gong)，推進煤(mei)礦手續辦理和產能核增(zeng)(zeng)，《報告》預計，電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)將比前期緩和，但部(bu)分地(di)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)應仍可(ke)能偏緊，另外，廣東(dong)、江蘇等氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)較多(duo)的地(di)區(qu)天(tian)然氣供(gong)(gong)應可(ke)能偏緊，都將制約火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)(ji)組出力。

《報(bao)告》預計(ji)，迎峰度冬(dong)期間全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)總體偏緊(jin)，部(bu)分(fen)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)形勢(shi)緊(jin)張。從各區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)的供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)平衡情況(kuang)(kuang)看，預計(ji)東北、西北區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)基本(ben)平衡，但區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)內新能源比重大，電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統調峰與保(bao)(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)熱矛盾較為突出(chu)；華北、華東、華中區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)偏緊(jin)；南方區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)形勢(shi)緊(jin)張。燃料供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)保(bao)(bao)障情況(kuang)(kuang)以(yi)及冬(dong)季(ji)氣(qi)候情況(kuang)(kuang)是影響今(jin)冬(dong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)形勢(shi)的主要不(bu)確定性因素，若全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)燃料供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)持續緊(jin)張或(huo)出(chu)現長時段大范圍寒潮(chao)天氣(qi)，則電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)(xu)偏緊(jin)的省(sheng)份(fen)將(jiang)增(zeng)多，各區(qu)(qu)(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)中均將(jiang)有部(bu)分(fen)省(sheng)級電(dian)(dian)網(wang)呈現出(chu)不(bu)同程度的緊(jin)張態勢(shi)。

（來(lai)源(yuan)：中國(guo)工業(ye)新(xin)聞(wen)）

發布時間:2021-10-29 訪問次數:1147